Conference Day Three - Thursday 26 March
The East Coast Gas Market - supply options and demand dynamics out to 2030
Click here for the Pre-Conference Learning Sessions
08:15 Registration and welcome coffee
08:50 Opening remarks from the Chair
Keith Orchison, Director, Coolibah Pty Ltd
The critical need to deliver more gas supply to the east coast market – examining current supply and demand dynamics
09:00 The NSW gas supply cliff – how can it be avoided?
- Examining forecast gas demand in NSW with a focus on winter peak loads
- Highlighting the key aspects of the gas supply predicament NSW faces this decade
- ‘Solving for x’ one year on – from where can NSW obtain gas supply to meet its uncontracted gas demand – ‘x’?
- Identifying the policies that need to be put in place to ensure security of supply
Tim Nelson, Head of Economic Policy and Sustainability, AGL Energy
09:25 Addressing domestic gas concerns in Queensland
- The potential for a tight gas supply market in Queensland as LNG trains come online and how this is being addressed by the state government
- Long term, how are LNG trains at Gladstone expected to impact the domestic market?
- Further opportunities to develop Queensland’s vast gas resources
David Rynne, Chief Resources Economist, Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines
09:50 Forecasting and analysing the impact of LNG on the east coast gas market
- Outlining the key uncertainties when forecasting supply and demand dynamics on the east coast
- Reviewing the initial findings of BREE’s domestic gas model
- The likely impact of LNG exports on domestic market price and supply in 2015 and 2016
Ross Lambie, Acting General Manager Resources and Energy Economics Branch, Department of Industry and Science
10:15 A detailed look at east coast supply dynamics with a focus on Queensland as it transitions including and LNG export market
- Reviewing the first domestic impact of four months of LNG shipments from QCLNG
- Assessing the impact for the broader east coast market of upstream CSG well performance as Gladstone LNG plants come online
- A detailed look at the capacity of other east coast basins to increase production to fill supply gaps in the medium term
- The market adjusting: supply gaps or demand destruction?
Paul Balfe, Executive Director, ACIL Allen Consulting
10:40 Morning tea
11:10 Transitioning from a domestic only market to one that includes an LNG export market – the new drivers behind Australia’s east coast gas market
- As the east coast is linked to the global gas market what will be some of the new factors driving demand and supply?
- How will these factors influence market volatility?
- The outlook for Asian LNG demand and implications for the east coast
Clyde Russell, Asia Commodities and Energy Analyst, Thomson Reuters
Assessing supply side solutions for the east coast gas market
11:35 Connecting the east coast and the Northern Territory – opportunity for the east coast
- Examining the east coast pipeline grid – it’s current structure and where gas is flowing
- To what extent can the Northern Territory fill gaps in the projected east coast demand and supply equation
- A look at the viability of the Northern Territory – east coast pipeline project and potential time frame
Rob Wheals, Group Executive Transmission, APA Group
12:00 PANEL DISCUSSION:
Increasing the number of market participants to increase gas supply in the market
- How will having more junior producers in the market help increase supply?
- What are the current constraints stopping more junior producers entering the market and how can their involvement be better facilitated?
Panel moderator:
Keith Orchison, Director, Coolibah Pty Ltd
Panellists:
Ian Davies, Managing Director, Senex Energy
Paul Balfe, Executive Director, ACIL Allen Consulting
Steve Davies, National Policy Manager, Australian Pipeline Industry Association
Peter Henderson, Managing Director, Metgasco
12:40 Networking lunch
13:40 Safe gas development in NSW – outlining the policies needed to make it a reality
- Reviewing the state of play in NSW right now
- Outlining the key impediments to developing gas in NSW
- Creating a policy framework that will allow for the safe development of gas in NSW
Peter Henderson, Managing Director, Metgasco
Optimising east coast market structure, understanding security of supply concerns and examining the role transmission and distribution infrastructure in improving market outcomes
14:05 The role of pipelines in facilitating an effective market on the east coast and the importance of adequate gas supply
- What comes first, the pipeline or the gas?
- Can trading hubs and spot markets help encourage smaller producers to join the market?
- Highlighting opportunities to get more gas into the market
Cheryl Cartwright, Chief Executive Office, Australian Pipeline Industry Association
14:30 Managing security of supply issues for the east coast gas market
- Understanding the east coast from the perspective of an energy intensive industry
- Is the east coast market operating as a ‘market’ should? Understanding the challenges end users face in securing contracts
- Is it too late to avoid supply shortfalls? If so, what are the options to ensure a more stable medium – long term market?
Miles Prosser, Executive Director, Australian Aluminium Council
15:05 The National Gas Market Bulletin Board – redeveloping it for the future
- Its role in the east coast gas market
- Gas Bulletin Board redevelopment - phase 1 achievements
- How further redevelopment of the Gas Bulletin Board will contribute towards a more efficient east coast gas market
Antara Mascarenhas, Manager, Gas Market Bulletin Board Development, AEMO
15:30 NETWORKING DRINKS AND EAST COAST MARKET ROUNDTABLE
In the next five years the east coast gas market will go through a transition that will leave the market fundamentally different to what it was at the start of the decade. Ensuring a transition that is as smooth as possible and that minimises any negative outcomes for all stakeholders is an important – and difficult – task.
This roundtable session will facilitate a discussion based around the day’s proceedings and focused on identifying which combination of solutions will work for the market and options for implementing them.
With light snacks and drinks provided it will also be a great opportunity for all involved to share ideas with their peers and make new connections.
Facilitator:
Keith Orchison, Director, Coolibah Pty Ltd
16:00 Close of conference